The Canada–U.S. border is getting busier again, but Canadians and Americans are travelling across it in noticeably different ways. New Statistics Canada figures released October 13, 2026, show that Canadians’ return trips by car from the United States remained 31.1% below September 2024 levels, even after a modest recovery from last year.
Meanwhile, Americans made approximately 1.3 million automobile trips into Canada during September, an increase of 19.5% compared with September 2025.
The contrast reflects a cross-border travel relationship still adjusting to political tensions, changing vacation preferences and economic pressures. Although some Canadians are returning to American destinations, the broader pullback remains substantial. For tourism businesses on both sides of the border, the question is no longer simply whether travellers are returning, but how many will come back and how quickly.
Canadian Driving Trips Remain Far Below Their 2024 Levels
The latest Statistics Canada figures reveal how persistent the decline in Canadian travel to the United States has become. In September 2026, Canadian residents returning by automobile from the U.S. increased 5.6% compared with September 2025. That improvement might suggest a recovering travel market, but it tells only part of the story. Compared with September 2024, automobile return trips were still down 31.1%, meaning roughly three out of every ten trips recorded two years earlier had not returned.
That distinction is important because the two percentages measure different periods. The 31.1% decline compares September 2026 with September 2024, while the 5.6% increase compares September 2026 with September 2025. Both can be true because travel dropped sharply during the intervening year. For border communities accustomed to Canadian shoppers, vacationers and weekend visitors, a small rebound from a depressed starting point does not necessarily restore normal business conditions. The figures measure return crossings by Canadian residents, rather than unique travellers or their reasons for visiting.
Americans Are Driving Into Canada in Growing Numbers
Travel in the opposite direction presents a different picture. Statistics Canada recorded approximately 1.3 million automobile trips into Canada by U.S. residents during September 2026, representing a 19.5% increase over September 2025. American air arrivals also rose 12.2% to approximately 537,400 trips. Together, automobile and air arrivals reached 1.8 million, an annual increase of 17.2%. It was the eighth consecutive month in which the combined total of U.S.-resident trips to Canada increased compared with the corresponding month a year earlier.
However, the September increase has an important qualification. Statistics Canada attributed the particularly strong monthly growth partly to the calendar effect of Labour Day, which fell on September 7 in 2026 rather than September 1 as it had in 2025. That shifted the holiday travel pattern within the comparison period. The agency’s figures therefore support a genuine increase in recorded crossings, but the 19.5% figure should not be interpreted as evidence that American enthusiasm for Canadian vacations suddenly increased by exactly that amount. It compares trips in September 2026 with September 2025, not with two years earlier.
Six Months of Recovery Have Not Reversed the Bigger Decline
September marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year growth in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States by automobile and air combined. The total reached 1,889,652, up 6.8% from September 2025. August had shown an even larger annual increase of 8.8%, with Canadian automobile return trips rising 9.9% from August 2025. Nevertheless, those August driving figures remained 27.4% below their August 2024 level. The pattern demonstrates why recovery headlines can be misleading when the comparison year was unusually weak.
Statistics Canada’s longer-term research provides perspective. In 2024, Canadian residents made approximately 39 million return border crossings from the United States, accounting for three-quarters of all Canadian-resident crossings from abroad. The total fell 25.4% during 2025. Excluding the pandemic period, the resulting 11-month sequence of year-over-year declines was the deepest and most sustained recorded in the agency’s border-crossing data. The latest increases therefore represent improvement from the 2025 downturn, not a return to the travel habits Canadians had established before the relationship deteriorated.
Canadians Are Also Flying to the United States Less Than Before
The decline is not confined to highway border crossings. Canadian-resident return trips from the United States by air increased 11.6% in September 2026 compared with a year earlier, but they remained 18.7% below September 2024. That resembles the pattern seen in automobile travel: a noticeable improvement against last year’s depressed figures alongside a substantial decline from two years earlier. Air travel is particularly revealing because airline tickets, accommodation and vacation schedules are often arranged well in advance, making travel decisions less flexible than an impromptu weekend drive.
Meanwhile, Americans are increasingly arriving in Canada by air. Statistics Canada counted approximately 537,400 such trips in September, up 12.2% from September 2025. Canadian residents also returned from just over one million overseas trips by air during September, an increase of 3.2% year over year. These statistics suggest that international travel has not simply stopped. Rather, travellers are making different destination choices. Airlines, airports and travel agencies may see growing demand in some markets while particular U.S. routes continue facing pressure.
Political Tensions Are Still Influencing Travel Decisions
The sharp decline in Canadian travel began during a period of unusually tense relations between Ottawa and Washington. Following Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, American tariff policies and confrontational statements toward Canada became prominent issues in the bilateral relationship. Statistics Canada’s July 2026 research identified this change in political circumstances alongside a sudden shift in Canadian travel sentiment. However, border-crossing statistics alone cannot establish how much of the decline was caused by political concerns rather than affordability, exchange rates or changing vacation priorities.
Recent polling indicates the hesitation has not disappeared. An October 9 report from Leger found that 60% of Canadians surveyed said they were less open to travelling to the United States than at any point during the previous year. Even if Canada–U.S. trade tensions eased, 43% said their likelihood of visiting would remain approximately unchanged, while 28% would become more likely to go. The online survey questioned 1,538 Canadian adults in early September. These are measures of stated preferences, not actual bookings, but they help explain why a few months of stronger border numbers may not signal a complete recovery in public enthusiasm.
Canadian Families Are Spending More on Trips Closer to Home
One of the clearest consequences of changing travel preferences is the growth of domestic tourism. Statistics Canada recorded approximately 342 million visits by Canadians within their own country in 2025, an increase of 1.5% from 2024. Domestic tourism expenditures reached C$81.3 billion, up 8.7%. The increase in spending was driven partly by leisure travel, which recorded an 8.1% rise in expenditures. These figures suggest that Canadians have continued taking vacations, although more of their travel activity has been directed toward destinations closer to home.
For a household that once drove across the border for a weekend getaway, a Canadian destination may now provide a convenient alternative. A family in Ontario might choose a cottage vacation instead of visiting upstate New York, while British Columbians could consider Vancouver Island rather than Washington state. These are illustrative examples, not individually documented travel decisions. Domestic tourism businesses may benefit from such substitutions, although higher spending also reflects changing prices and trip costs. The numbers cannot establish that every additional dollar spent in Canada would otherwise have gone to an American business.
Europe, Mexico and Other Overseas Destinations Are Gaining Ground
Canadians are not exclusively replacing American vacations with domestic travel. Statistics Canada’s National Travel Survey found that Canadians made approximately 14.3 million visits to overseas countries in 2025, up 10.2% from 2024. Visits to Europe increased 13.6%, while visits to Asia rose 16.7%. Mexico was the most frequently visited overseas country, recording approximately 2.66 million Canadian visits, followed by the Dominican Republic, France, the United Kingdom and Italy. The shift indicates that many Canadians remain interested in international experiences even as their enthusiasm for visiting the United States has weakened.
The financial impact is considerable. Canadian spending on overseas visits reached C$31.3 billion in 2025, an increase of 17.5% from the previous year. The movement continued into early 2026, when overseas visits increased 6.2% during the first quarter. Leger’s October travel survey also found growing interest in Mexico and other international destinations for fall travel. These choices have implications for airlines and tour operators, which may respond to sustained demand by adjusting routes and vacation packages. Nevertheless, changing travel preferences do not guarantee that every international destination will experience growth or that overseas vacations are becoming cheaper.
Visits to Family Have Held Up Better Than Leisure Vacations
Not every journey across the border is easily replaced. Statistics Canada’s research found that Canadian visits to the United States for holidays, leisure and recreation declined 21.5% in 2025 compared with 2024, a reduction of approximately 3.2 million visits. By contrast, trips primarily intended to visit friends and relatives declined 9%, or approximately 536,000 visits. That difference suggests personal relationships have provided a stronger reason to continue crossing the border than discretionary tourism. A Canadian with family in Michigan or New York may have reasons to travel that cannot be satisfied by choosing a Canadian resort instead.
The economic consequences also differ between these types of journeys. Statistics Canada found that Canadians travelling abroad primarily for leisure spent approximately 4.5 times as much as those travelling mainly to visit family and friends during 2025. Leisure vacations generally involve more commercial accommodation, dining and entertainment expenses, while family visits may involve staying with relatives. Consequently, losing a leisure traveller can have a disproportionately large effect on local tourism revenue. The distinction helps explain why some border crossings may recover even while businesses dependent on Canadian holidaymakers continue struggling.
U.S. Tourism Businesses Have Lost Billions in Canadian Spending
Fewer Canadian visits have translated into a substantial financial impact for American tourism businesses. Statistics Canada found that Canadian spending on visits to the United States fell by C$3.3 billion in 2025, reaching C$18.8 billion. That represented a 15.1% decline from 2024. Spending on leisure-related visits alone decreased by C$2.2 billion to C$12.1 billion. The figures underline how changes in travel behaviour can affect hotels, restaurants, retail outlets and entertainment businesses, even when the number of returning visitors begins to improve.
Border communities provide particularly visible examples. In June 2026, personal-vehicle crossings into Maine rose to 119,970 from 108,934 a year earlier, according to U.S. transportation data reported by Maine Public. Yet traffic remained below its level two years earlier. More recent travel-industry reporting also found that September crossings in northern New England were 23% below September 2024, while southbound vehicle traffic in Washington’s Whatcom County remained 27% lower. For businesses accustomed to serving Canadian customers, partial recovery offers some encouragement, but rebuilding lost revenue may take considerably longer.
American Visitors Could Provide Relief to Canadian Tourism Businesses
The growing number of Americans entering Canada offers a potentially important economic opportunity. During 2025, U.S. residents made approximately 22.8 million visits to Canada, down about 3% from 2024. The picture improved during the first quarter of 2026, when American visitors made 3.6 million trips into Canada, a 3.4% increase from a year earlier. Their spending rose 16.5% to approximately C$3 billion. These figures demonstrate why inbound American tourism matters to Canadian businesses even when outbound Canadian travel remains subdued.
For hotels, restaurants and attractions near the border, an increase in American customers can help offset changing travel patterns. Destinations such as Niagara Falls, Vancouver and Montréal may benefit from continued interest among American visitors, although the September border figures do not establish how much additional spending each destination received. The duration of trips also matters. In the first quarter of 2026, 42.8% of visits by U.S. residents were same-day trips, which generally offer fewer opportunities for hotel spending than overnight stays. Canada’s challenge is to turn higher visitor volumes into lasting economic benefits rather than assuming that every additional border crossing represents a substantial vacation.
The Next Border Reports Will Show Whether the Recovery Is Sustainable
Statistics Canada’s latest release is an early indicator rather than a final accounting of September travel. It relies on Canada Border Services Agency information collected through airport inspection kiosks and land-border systems. An important methodological change also took effect with the September release: Statistics Canada began incorporating additional information about travellers processed through the NEXUS Highway program. The agency cautioned that comparisons between September 2026 and earlier periods should be interpreted carefully while the expanded data integration continues. The counts also represent trips, not necessarily different individuals.
More complete September travel statistics are scheduled for November 23, 2026, while the preliminary October figures are expected November 12. Those releases should help determine whether the latest increases represent continued recovery or temporary fluctuations influenced by holidays and other factors. The distinction between year-over-year improvement and a return to 2024 travel volumes will remain essential. For Canadians, Americans and the businesses connecting the two countries, September’s numbers tell a complicated story: some travellers are coming back, but the once-familiar pattern of cross-border visits has not yet been restored.
