The United States and Canada share a complex economic relationship beyond diplomatic pleasantries. Despite decades of cooperative trade and integrated manufacturing, current geopolitical dynamics present significant challenges to the automotive sector. This analysis examines the 20 automakers most vulnerable to emerging trade tensions.
Ford Motor Company
Ford has plants in Ontario, including the famous Oakville Assembly Complex, where SUVs like the Ford Edge and Lincoln Nautilus are born. The automotive supply chain is highly integrated across North America, with parts often crossing borders multiple times before final assembly. Tariffs could disrupt this flow, adding significant costs and delays. While Ford produces a substantial portion of its vehicles domestically, its operations in Canada and Mexico are integral to its overall production strategy. The company is exploring rerouting exports and adjusting logistics to mitigate these challenges.
General Motors (GM)
GM might be as American as tailgate parties and BBQs, but its Canadian operations are nothing to sneeze at. President Trump’s 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico threaten to increase GM’s production costs significantly. Analysts estimate these tariffs could add approximately $3,300 per vehicle, potentially eroding profit margins. Consequently, GM has revised its 2025 profit forecast downward by up to $5 billion and suspended $2 billion in stock buybacks. Disruptions here wouldn’t just hurt Canada—it’d be like pulling the engine out of a Chevy Silverado mid-road trip.
Stellantis (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram)
Stellantis has some serious Canadian cred. The Windsor Assembly Plant pumps minivans like it’s on a mission from the Hockey Gods. And let’s not forget Brampton, where muscle cars flex their V8s with pride. The company is also stockpiling parts and accelerating shipments to U.S. dealers to mitigate short-term disruptions. Despite efforts to shift more manufacturing to the U.S., including reopening an Illinois plant and investing in facilities in Detroit, Toledo, and Kokomo, Stellantis continues to grapple with declining U.S. sales, high inventory levels, and investor skepticism. If trade barriers kick in, expect stall-outs in your future Charger or Pacifica.
Toyota
You may think of Toyota as a Japanese company (correct), but Canada is home to some of Toyota’s most productive plants outside Japan. Cambridge and Woodstock, Ontario, produce the best-selling RAV4 and Lexus RX. The tariffs have led Toyota to forecast a 21% decline in full-year operating profit to ¥3.8 trillion ($26 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 2026. The automaker is considering shifting production of models like the RAV4 to the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts. Additionally, Toyota’s RAV4, produced in Canada, may not meet the USMCA’s 75% North American content requirement, potentially subjecting it to tariffs.
Honda
Honda is particularly vulnerable to U.S.-Canada trade tensions due to its reliance on cross-border manufacturing. Approximately 80% of the vehicles produced at Honda’s Alliston, Ontario plant are exported to the U.S., making them susceptible to the recently imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports. Similarly, Honda manufactures around 200,000 vehicles annually in Mexico, with 80% destined for the U.S. market. But if Canada-U.S. relations go colder than a Tim Hortons iced capp in January, you can expect delays and cost hikes in your next Civic or CR-V.
BMW
BMW doesn’t build cars in Canada, but its parts supply chains run deep through North America. Despite these challenges, BMW maintains a robust presence in the U.S. through its Spartanburg, South Carolina plant—the company’s largest globally, which produces over 1,500 vehicles daily and exports more than half of them. This local manufacturing base provides some insulation against tariffs. Nonetheless, BMW projects a €1 billion tariff-related cost for 2025, affecting profitability. In response, the company is exploring adjustments to its North American production and supply chains to mitigate these impacts.
Mercedes-Benz
The Three-Pointed Star depends on smooth logistics for luxury delivery. Many of its vehicles assembled in the U.S. use Canadian parts. And let’s not forget that Mercedes also sells a boatload of cars in Canada. Furthermore, Mercedes-Benz is considering withdrawing its entry-level models, such as the A-Class and CLA, from the U.S. market due to diminished profitability under the new tariff regime. These strategic shifts underscore the company’s vulnerability to trade policy changes and the broader implications for the automotive industry.
Tesla
While Elon’s empire is mostly U.S.-centric, Tesla sources components across the continent. The company has Canadian R&D facilities and ties to Canadian aluminum and battery technology suppliers. Additionally, Tesla’s reliance on a North American supply chain means that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican parts further strain its operations. Collectively, these factors underscore Tesla’s precarious position in the face of ongoing U.S.-Canada trade disputes.
Volkswagen Group
VW is eyeing Canada with increasing interest, especially in the EV space. They’ve even signed agreements with Canada to secure critical minerals. But guess what? That only works if the border remains friendlier than a golden retriever at a barbecue. And, despite investing over $10 billion in U.S. operations, including a joint venture with Rivian, Volkswagen’s heavy dependence on cross-border trade renders it particularly vulnerable to protectionist policies. The company also advocates for constructive dialogue to mitigate trade conflicts and ensure economic stability.
Hyundai/Kia
Hyundai and Kia are feeling the heat from the U.S.-Canada trade tensions, and it’s not just the exhaust pipes. With President Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts, these South Korean automakers are caught in a crossfire. Hyundai’s Mexican plant, producing over 400,000 vehicles annually, faces a potential $7,000 price hike per car for U.S. buyers. Meanwhile, Kia’s exports from Mexico are similarly threatened. In short, Hyundai and Kia are in a high-stakes game of automotive chess, and the tariffs are the unpredictable moves that could tip the balance.
Nissan
Nissan might fly the Japanese flag, but it’s a NAFTA baby in terms of production. Unlike Toyota and Honda, which have more diversified production and substantial financial buffers, Nissan’s reliance on cost-effective Mexican manufacturing for models like the Sentra and Kicks exposes it. These models cater to budget-conscious consumers, making it challenging to pass on increased costs without affecting sales. A breakdown in trade harmony could result in less Altima and more ultimatums.”
Subaru
Bless its boxer-engine heart, Subaru is the automaker most at risk from U.S.-Canada trade tensions—and not just because its cars are named after constellations. As of 2023, over half of all Subarus sold in Canada were built in the U.S., mostly at their Indiana plant (Subaru of Indiana Automotive, Inc.). If tariffs flare up between the two countries like a bad diplomatic heartburn, Subaru’s Canadian dealers could be left scrambling like squirrels in a snowstorm.
Mazda
Like Subaru, Mazda relies on cross-border movement for both sales and supply. While it is mainly in Japan and Mexico, it relies on Canada for parts and market access. According to the Centre for Automotive Research, over 60% of Mazda vehicles sold in North America are shipped in, not built there. So, if tariffs rise, Mazda’s costs rise, and so do the prices of your favorite zippy crossovers. While others might duck under the NAFTA/USMCA security blanket, Mazda’s standing in the wind yelling, “Please don’t tax my CX-5!” Politics and profit margins rarely make great road trip buddies.
Rivian
Rivian, the plucky EV upstart, is navigating a geopolitical obstacle course that could make even seasoned diplomats sweat. Despite assembling its vehicles in Illinois, Rivian’s reliance on imported components like battery cells and copper windings has left it vulnerable to the Trump administration’s tariffs, which have inflated production costs by several thousand dollars per vehicle. In response, Rivian has scaled back its 2025 delivery forecast to 40,000–46,000 vehicles, down from an earlier estimate of 46,000–51,000. In short, Rivian is learning that even electric dreams can get a jolt from political realities in international trade.
Lucid Motors
Luxury EV maker Lucid is partnering with Canadian firms for R&D and materials. Given their niche and high-end vehicles, any border-based bottlenecks could hit them right where it hurts—the wallet and the waiting list. Moreover, Lucid’s Arizona manufacturing facility has attracted interest from other automakers seeking to mitigate tariff impacts, highlighting Lucid’s strategic advantage in domestic production. While the road ahead may have its bumps, Lucid’s proactive measures and commitment to innovation suggest it’s well-equipped to navigate trade tensions.
Magna International
Magna International, the Canadian auto parts juggernaut, is navigating a bumpy road due to U.S.-Canada trade tensions. With 142 facilities across North America, Magna’s components often cross borders multiple times before becoming part of a vehicle, making them particularly susceptible to tariffs. CEO Swamy Kotagiri has described President Trump’s 25% import tariffs as “disruptive,” likening the situation to a game of automotive ping-pong with added costs. And while Magna braces for the storm, the road ahead remains uncertain.
Volvo
Volvo, the safety-first Swede with a flair for minimalist design and maximum airbags, finds itself in a geopolitical pickle. Why? It’s the most at-risk automaker when U.S.-Canada trade tensions flare up like a rusty tailpipe. Volvo builds many cars in the U.S. (hello, South Carolina) but relies heavily on Canadian parts, especially steel and aluminum. A tariff tiff between Uncle Sam and our maple syrup-loving neighbors could stall Volvo’s supply chain faster than a moose on the Trans-Canada Highway. For Volvo, keeping its parts flowing across the 49th parallel isn’t just a business goal—it’s a survival instinct.
BYD (Build Your Dreams)
This Chinese EV juggernaut is just beginning to flirt with North America. They’re eyeing Canadian minerals and U.S. markets. Undeterred by problems, BYD is channeling its inner automotive ninja, stealthily expanding into Latin America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, and even setting up factories in Mexico, Hungary, and Brazil to dodge tariffs like a pro. Their goal? To have half of their sales outside China by 2030. So, while BYD might be benched in North America, it’s still playing the global EV game with gusto.
Fisker Inc.
Oh, Fisker Inc.—the EV startup that dreamed big, built sleek, and hit every pothole on the road to success. Fisker’s Ocean SUV, assembled by Canada’s Magna Steyr, was supposed to surf the electric wave. Instead, it got caught in a riptide of quality issues, including hoods flying open and sudden power losses. It plans to partner with Canadian firms for sustainable materials and EV tech. Unfortunately, a grumpy border patrol officer with a fondness for paperwork could delay their eco-revolution.
VinFast
VinFast, Vietnam’s ambitious EV maker, is navigating a bumpy road amid escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions. Initially setting its sights on the U.S. market, the company faced challenges like high logistics costs and uncertain tariffs, leading to a strategic pivot towards Asia. Plans for a $4 billion North Carolina plant have been postponed until 2028, while new facilities in India and Indonesia are slated to commence operations in 2025. In this climate, VinFast’s shift towards Asian markets appears timely. The company aims to mitigate risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities by focusing on regions with more stable trade relations.
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