Canadian drivers are waking up to a sharply uneven fuel-price picture, with some western cities facing double-digit increases while Toronto is expected to see only a modest change. For Saturday, October 24, regular gasoline is forecast to reach 220.9 cents per litre in Kelowna, 186.9 cents in Calgary and 199.9 cents in Winnipeg. Toronto, by comparison, is forecast at 174.9 cents.
The size of the increases is just as striking: 14 cents per litre in Kelowna, 13 cents in Calgary and 12 cents in Winnipeg, against only two cents in Toronto. The divergence comes as international crude prices climb again and North American refined-fuel markets remain unusually tight, creating another reminder that Canadian gasoline prices can move very differently from one region to another.
A Four-City Forecast With Very Different Pain Levels
The October 24 forecasts illustrate how little a single “Canadian gas price” can say about what households actually encounter at the pump. Kelowna is expected to move to 220.9 cents per litre after sitting at 206.9 cents a day earlier. Calgary is forecast to rise from 173.9 to 186.9 cents, while Winnipeg moves from 187.9 to 199.9 cents. Toronto is the outlier, increasing only from 172.9 to 174.9 cents per litre. That leaves a 46-cent-per-litre gap between Toronto and Kelowna despite both cities being exposed to the same broad global oil market.
For motorists, those differences quickly become tangible. Filling 50 litres at the forecast prices would cost about $110.45 in Kelowna, $99.95 in Winnipeg, $93.45 in Calgary and $87.45 in Toronto. The same 50-litre purchase would therefore cost roughly $23 more in Kelowna than in Toronto. The one-day forecast increase alone adds $7 to a 50-litre Kelowna fill, $6.50 in Calgary and $6 in Winnipeg, compared with just $1 in Toronto.
Kelowna Faces the Steepest Increase
Kelowna is carrying the heaviest burden in the latest forecast. Regular gasoline is expected to reach 220.9 cents per litre, an increase of 14 cents from Friday’s 206.9-cent forecast. The Thursday figure was 201.9 cents, meaning the forecast price has climbed 19 cents in just two days. For a household putting 60 litres into an SUV or crossover, Saturday’s 14-cent move alone represents an additional $8.40 compared with Friday’s price.
Kelowna’s situation also demonstrates why geography remains important even in an interconnected energy market. Natural Resources Canada notes that transportation costs, station location, local competition, taxes and fuel volumes all contribute to regional price differences. Interior communities can face different distribution economics than major refining or coastal hubs, while retail inventories do not necessarily turn over at the same pace in every market. Those structural factors do not mean every Kelowna price increase is inevitable, but they help explain why a global crude-price shock can appear differently at an Okanagan pump than at a station thousands of kilometres away in southern Ontario.
Calgary’s 13-Cent Jump Comes Despite Major Tax Relief
Calgary’s forecast is particularly notable because Alberta motorists are currently receiving substantial fuel-tax relief. The province suspended its 13-cent-per-litre gasoline and diesel tax beginning October 1, with the provincial rate set at zero for the current period. Even with that relief, Calgary regular gasoline is forecast to climb 13 cents Saturday to 186.9 cents per litre. Friday’s forecast was 173.9 cents, while Thursday’s was just 159.9 cents, producing a remarkable 27-cent rise over two days.
That sequence highlights the power of the underlying commodity and wholesale markets. A temporary tax reduction can lower the starting point for pump prices, but it cannot prevent crude, refining or wholesale gasoline costs from moving sharply. For a Calgary driver buying 60 litres, the latest 13-cent increase translates to an extra $7.80 on a fill. Calgary nevertheless remains cheaper than Kelowna and Winnipeg under Saturday’s forecast, showing how Alberta’s tax structure and proximity to western Canadian energy production can still matter even during a sudden upward price cycle.
Winnipeg Is Moving Back Toward the $2-a-Litre Mark
Winnipeg motorists are facing a psychologically significant price point. Regular gasoline is forecast at 199.9 cents per litre for October 24, just one-tenth of a cent below $2.00. That represents a 12-cent increase from Friday’s 187.9 cents and follows another sizable move from 180.9 cents on Thursday. In only two days, the forecast has therefore risen 19 cents per litre. A 50-litre fill at 199.9 cents works out to $99.95 before adding anything from the convenience store.
Manitoba’s provincial gasoline tax is currently 12.5 cents per litre, following a permanent reduction that took effect in 2025. That tax forms part of the underlying price structure, but it has not suddenly increased to produce Saturday’s forecast jump. The latest movement is better viewed in the context of rapidly changing wholesale energy costs. For families commuting between Winnipeg neighbourhoods and suburban communities, or businesses operating fleets throughout southern Manitoba, a 12-cent overnight increase can be much more noticeable than gradual price movements spread across several weeks.
Toronto Is Largely Escaping the Double-Digit Shock
Toronto’s forecast looks comparatively mild. Regular gasoline is expected to reach 174.9 cents per litre, only two cents higher than Friday’s 172.9-cent figure. Thursday’s forecast was 171.9 cents, meaning Toronto has moved only three cents higher across the same two-day period in which Calgary climbed 27 cents and Winnipeg and Kelowna each rose 19 cents. On a 50-litre purchase, Saturday’s Toronto increase amounts to approximately $1.
That does not make Toronto gasoline inexpensive in historical terms, but it shows how regional fuel markets can absorb global pressures at different speeds. Ontario’s gasoline tax is nine cents per litre, while the province is also part of a central Canadian fuel market closely connected to U.S. East Coast and international product pricing. Wholesale inventories, refinery supply, transportation routes and competitive conditions can therefore create a very different daily price trajectory from the Prairies or British Columbia. Toronto’s comparatively small increase should not be interpreted as immunity from the global oil shock; it is a snapshot of how that shock is being transmitted locally.
Surging Crude Prices Are Raising the Stakes
The international oil market provides an important backdrop to the Canadian forecasts. On October 23, Brent crude jumped $3.55 to settle at $116.72 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose $3.80 to $103.27. Brent reached its highest settlement since late April. The rally followed another volatile stretch in which attacks involving Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and shipping renewed concerns that supplies could be disrupted.
Crude oil is only one component of a litre of gasoline, and a daily move in oil does not automatically translate into an identical move at every Canadian station. Still, crude represents a major input cost for refiners, and markets can react quickly when traders become worried about future availability. Natural Resources Canada notes that wars, severe weather, refinery disruptions and other events affecting crude or gasoline supply can produce rapid changes in fuel markets. The current environment therefore gives wholesalers and retailers a much more volatile cost base than drivers experienced during calmer periods, even before local distribution and retail margins are added.
Refining Constraints Are Making the Market More Fragile
High crude prices are not the only concern. Refined petroleum products themselves have been under pressure. TD Economics reported in October that refined-fuel markets remained tight despite some improvement in crude-oil flows. Canadian and U.S. gasoline and diesel markets are tied into regional supply networks that cannot instantly move unlimited quantities of fuel from one part of the continent to another. Early-October U.S. gasoline inventories were about six per cent below their five-year seasonal average, according to TD’s analysis.
Refineries have also been operating unusually hard. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that American refinery utilization averaged more than 95 per cent of capacity from May through September 2026, the highest rate for those months since 1998. When facilities are already running near their limits, unexpected outages or supply disruptions can have a greater effect on wholesale prices. These conditions help explain why gasoline prices may jump even when crude supply itself has not disappeared. They also help explain why one region can experience a sudden increase while another market, drawing from a different supply chain, sees a much smaller change.
The Latest Increases Are Not the Result of a New Federal Pump Tax
Tax policy often becomes part of the conversation whenever gasoline prices rise sharply, but the October 24 increases do not coincide with a new federal gasoline tax. Canada’s federal consumer fuel charge was eliminated effective April 1, 2025 and later permanently removed from federal legislation. Separately, the federal government temporarily suspended its 10-cent-per-litre gasoline excise tax in 2026 and has extended that full suspension through January 31, 2027.
Provincial taxes still differ substantially. Alberta’s gasoline fuel tax is currently set at zero under its relief program, Manitoba’s rate is 12.5 cents per litre and Ontario’s gasoline tax is nine cents per litre. British Columbia also continues to apply motor-fuel taxation even though its provincial carbon tax was eliminated in 2025. These differences help shape the normal gap between cities, but they cannot by themselves explain an overnight 14-cent increase in Kelowna or 13-cent jump in Calgary when the relevant tax rates did not rise overnight. The immediate story is overwhelmingly about changing market costs layered on top of existing regional tax structures.
Gasoline Has Already Become a Major Inflation Pressure
The latest forecasts arrive after months of fuel inflation. Statistics Canada reported that gasoline prices were 27.8 per cent higher in September 2026 than a year earlier and rose 6.1 per cent from August to September alone. Transportation prices were up 8.4 per cent year over year, helping push Canada’s overall Consumer Price Index to 3.1 per cent. That makes another round of gasoline increases economically important even if some of the daily moves eventually reverse.
Small per-litre changes become meaningful when accumulated across a year. A vehicle driven 12,000 kilometres annually while consuming 8.5 litres per 100 kilometres uses roughly 1,020 litres of fuel. If gasoline stayed 10 cents per litre more expensive for an entire year, that driving pattern would cost about $102 extra; at a sustained 14-cent increase, the difference would be nearly $143. Commercial effects can be broader because diesel is essential to trucking, agriculture, construction and distribution. Businesses may initially absorb higher fuel bills, but prolonged increases can eventually appear in freight charges and the prices of goods that have to travel long distances.
Forecasts Are a Guide, Not a Guarantee at Every Station
Drivers should distinguish between a regional forecast and the number displayed at every individual station. Gas-price forecasting services use wholesale pricing, market movements and regional conditions to estimate where average retail prices are likely to move. Gas Wizard specifically cautions that individual stations can experience unusually rapid inventory turnover or local “gas wars,” meaning actual prices may vary around the regional prediction. Some stations can also change prices hours before or after nearby competitors.
That caveat matters especially during a volatile period. A 14-cent forecast increase in Kelowna does not guarantee that every station will move exactly 14 cents, just as Toronto’s two-cent forecast does not rule out larger changes at individual locations. What the latest figures do provide is a clear directional signal: fuel markets are experiencing enough stress that neighbouring days can produce dramatically different prices, and the effect is not being distributed evenly across Canada. With crude oil above $100 a barrel, refined-product supplies tight and geopolitical risks elevated, Canadians may need to expect unusually large regional swings to remain part of the pump-price landscape.
