Diesel has become an unexpectedly sharp pressure point in both geopolitics and household budgets. U.S. President Donald Trump is blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries for helping drive fuel prices higher, while his administration turns to Russian diesel in an effort to increase global supply. North of the border, Canadians are confronting the same tight market from a different direction. The national retail diesel average was hovering around $2.60 a litre in early October, with prices substantially higher in some cities. The squeeze reaches far beyond owners of diesel vehicles: trucks, farms, construction equipment and freight networks all depend heavily on the fuel. Yet energy-market data suggests the price shock cannot be traced to one leader, one country or even one war.
Trump Puts the Blame Directly on Zelenskyy
Trump escalated his criticism of Zelenskyy on October 10, telling reporters at the White House that Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure were hurting global diesel supplies. He argued that Kyiv had ignored his request to avoid refineries and linked the strikes to higher costs facing farmers, ranchers and other diesel users. Trump went further by saying he believed Ukraine should have a new president capable of reaching a peace agreement with Russia. The remarks represented a significant escalation in his public dispute with the Ukrainian leader.
The timing matters. Diesel prices have become a major domestic political issue in the United States, where the national average reached roughly $6.28 a gallon in early October. Trump has increasingly focused on bringing those costs down ahead of the November congressional elections. Ukraine, meanwhile, views Russian oil and refining infrastructure as part of Moscow’s ability to finance and sustain the war. That leaves the White House and Kyiv approaching the same refineries from completely different perspectives: Washington is worried about global fuel supply, while Ukraine sees them as economically significant wartime targets.
Trump Is Betting on More Russian Diesel
A day before criticizing Zelenskyy, Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin intended to return additional Russian diesel to world markets. Trump said Russia would immediately provide more than 300,000 metric tonnes, equivalent to roughly 2.25 million barrels, followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November and one million tonnes after that. He said additional supplies could follow depending partly on the operating condition of Russian refineries. The U.S. Treasury also issued temporary authorization allowing Russian diesel imports despite sanctions imposed on the country’s energy sector.
The headline volumes sound large until placed beside the scale of the fuel market. The United States itself exports roughly 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day. Energy analysts interviewed by Reuters questioned whether the Russian arrangement was substantial enough to produce a lasting change in prices, noting that Russia normally exports considerably more diesel when its refinery system is functioning normally. Futures initially fell after Trump’s announcement, showing that additional supply can influence expectations. Whether physical deliveries create lasting relief is a separate question that will take longer to answer.
Canadians Are Already Paying Around $2.60 a Litre
The price pressure Trump is confronting in the United States has clearly crossed the Canadian border. Natural Resources Canada data cited by The Canadian Press showed the country’s average retail diesel price at almost $2.60 a litre on October 6, more than $1.06 a litre above its level one year earlier. Another national price series put diesel at $2.59 a litre on October 5. Those figures make the phrase “near $2.60” a national benchmark rather than an isolated price seen at one expensive service station.
Some Canadian drivers are paying noticeably more. Gas Wizard listed Toronto diesel at 261.9 cents a litre for October 11, compared with 180.9 cents for regular gasoline. Prince Edward Island’s regulator set self-serve diesel between 263.6 and 264.7 cents on October 10. Kalibrate’s daily survey showed Vancouver at 286.2 cents on October 9 and Victoria at 276.7 cents. Regional taxes, transportation costs and wholesale conditions produce significant differences, meaning a national average can actually understate what diesel users face in several markets.
Diesel Has Risen Far Faster Than Drivers Are Used To
The current prices are striking partly because of how quickly they arrived. Kalibrate reported that Canadian retail diesel ended September at an average of 260.7 cents a litre, up 23.9 cents from the previous month. The Canadian Press reported that diesel averaged more than $2.64 a litre during the week ending September 29, roughly 59 per cent higher than immediately before the war with Iran and about 15 per cent above November 2022, which had previously represented a record period for Canadian diesel prices.
That creates a very different experience from ordinary weekly pump-price fluctuations. A pickup or delivery van taking 70 litres would cost about $182 to fill at $2.60 a litre. At $1.54—the approximate national price a year earlier—the same 70 litres would have cost about $108, a difference of roughly $74 on a single fill. Commercial users multiply that effect across much larger tanks and entire fleets. For a trucking company filling dozens of tractors repeatedly each week, a move of more than a dollar per litre becomes an operating-cost shock rather than merely an inconvenience for motorists.
The Fuel Crisis Is Much Bigger Than the Russia-Ukraine War
Ukraine’s refinery strikes have affected diesel availability, but current market evidence points to a much wider supply problem. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 higher than in August. It attributed the jump partly to attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, restrictions on oil flows and sharply increased tanker and insurance costs. Global oil inventories fell by an estimated 1.9 million barrels per day during the third quarter and were expected to continue declining during the fourth.
The refined-fuel market is even tighter. Reuters reported that the wars involving Iran and Ukraine have contributed to a global diesel shortage, while analysts described unusually restricted supplies of refined petroleum products as the fundamental problem. The International Energy Agency considered the situation serious enough on October 7 to support accelerating previously announced emergency stock releases and prioritizing diesel where possible. Member countries had already released about 325 million barrels of oil under their March emergency action, with another roughly 100 million barrels still available from pledged releases. That scale illustrates why attributing today’s prices to one set of Ukrainian attacks provides only part of the explanation.
Ukraine’s Refinery Strikes Still Have a Real Market Impact
Trump’s explanation should not be interpreted to mean Ukraine’s attacks are irrelevant. Russia has traditionally been an important exporter of diesel and other refined petroleum products, so damage that reduces refinery output can tighten an already constrained international market. Reuters reported earlier this year that Russian diesel production fell about 10 per cent in May after a similar decline in April as Ukrainian drone attacks damaged refinery operations. The production reduction amounted to as much as 1.6 million metric tonnes across those two months.
More recent damage has intensified the pressure. Ukraine has claimed that its long-range campaign has disabled a large portion of Russian refining capacity, while outside reporting has documented a significant decline in Russian diesel production. Kyiv argues that refineries are legitimate strategic targets because petroleum revenue and fuel supplies support Russia’s military campaign. That creates the central contradiction in Trump’s position: stopping the attacks could make more diesel available internationally, but it could also restore revenue and fuel-processing capacity to the country waging war against Ukraine. Energy-market effects and military strategy cannot be separated neatly in this case.
Canada’s Own Refineries Cannot Fully Shield Consumers
Canada is a major oil producer, which can make extremely high domestic fuel prices feel counterintuitive. The Canada Energy Regulator reported that the country’s refineries processed about 1.6 million barrels of crude per day in 2025, representing approximately 90 per cent of their total capacity. Canada has 16 crude-oil refineries capable of turning crude into products including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Around one-fifth of Canadian refined petroleum production is exported, according to the regulator.
Federal officials have also said Canada produces approximately as much diesel as it consumes overall and remains a net exporter. But domestic production does not isolate Canadian customers from international prices. Refiners buy crude and sell petroleum products in interconnected North American and global markets, where prices reflect alternative export values, refinery margins, inventories and transportation constraints. Running plants closer to their maximum capacity is not a switch that instantly creates huge amounts of additional diesel either. Canada’s roughly 90 per cent refinery utilization leaves considerably less spare capacity than the country’s enormous crude-oil reserves might suggest to someone looking only at how much oil Canada produces.
Ottawa Has Already Suspended the Federal Diesel Excise Tax
Canadian pump prices would be even higher if existing fuel-tax relief were not in place. Ottawa normally levies a federal excise tax of four cents per litre on diesel, but the government suspended that tax beginning April 20. The measure was subsequently extended through January 31, 2027. Half the normal rate—two cents a litre—is scheduled to return for February and March before the full four-cent rate is restored April 1, 2027, under the current plan.
Several provinces have offered additional relief. Alberta paused its 13-cent-per-litre provincial gasoline and diesel tax from October through December after high oil prices triggered its relief mechanism, while Prince Edward Island temporarily suspended its provincial fuel tax beginning in late September. The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated on October 8 that the combined federal fuel-tax suspension and subsequent half-rate period would cost Ottawa about $4.9 billion in 2026-27 and provide average savings of approximately $276 per Canadian family. Yet diesel remains around $2.60 a litre nationally, illustrating how a major wholesale-price shock can overwhelm several cents per litre of tax relief.
Higher Diesel Costs Eventually Reach People Who Never Buy Diesel
Most Canadians do not need a diesel-powered personal vehicle to feel the impact. Diesel moves food from distribution centres to supermarkets, powers tractors and other agricultural machinery, carries building supplies to job sites and fuels large parts of the freight sector. The Canadian Press calculated how quickly the increase has changed transportation economics: an industry representative estimated that a round-trip semi-truck haul between Montreal and Toronto that cost roughly $850 on January 1 could cost about $1,400 by late September.
Rail freight has faced similar pressure. Fuel surcharges charged by Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City for October were as much as 73 per cent above their levels in early August. Those charges do not necessarily appear on a household receipt as a line labelled “diesel.” They are embedded in the cost of getting groceries, clothing, pharmaceuticals and building materials to their destination. Retailers can temporarily absorb some increases, but businesses operating on narrow margins eventually face pressure to pass higher transportation costs forward. That is why prolonged diesel inflation can matter even to households that drive gasoline cars, hybrids or electric vehicles.
The Next Move in Canadian Prices Will Be Decided Far Beyond Canada
There are several routes through which the pressure could ease, but none offers an immediate guarantee. Russian diesel shipments could add supply if the volumes promised by Trump actually reach international markets. Accelerated emergency-stock releases could help bridge shortages. Recovering refinery output could reduce unusually high diesel margins, while improved Middle Eastern shipping conditions could lower crude prices, insurance costs and transportation risk. The EIA currently expects those pressures to moderate eventually, but it has also warned that Middle Eastern disruptions could keep petroleum markets unusually volatile.
That leaves Canadian drivers exposed to developments thousands of kilometres away. A refinery damaged in Russia, a tanker route threatened in the Middle East or a strategic-reserve decision in Europe can ultimately change the wholesale value of diesel delivered into Canada. Trump is correct that Russian refinery losses affect the equation, but the broader evidence shows a market strained by several simultaneous disruptions. For Canadians staring at a pump displaying $2.60—or considerably more—the most important question is therefore not which political leader receives the blame. It is how quickly enough refined fuel can return to a global market running short of it.
