Canada’s gasoline market is entering September with a motorists often expect after Labour Day is being overwhelmed by another surge in global oil prices, leaving the national average hovering around the $1.80-a-litre mark depending on the price tracker and time of day.
GasBuddy says the latest increase could have further to run, with its head of petroleum analysis warning that prices could reach roughly $1.82 to $1.85 per litre within one or two weeks. Behind the renewed pressure are escalating Middle East tensions, constrained oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and tight refined-fuel markets. Meanwhile, Ottawa has extended its fuel-tax relief, preventing another potential layer of cost from landing at the pump during an already difficult period.
Canada Is Back Around the $1.80-a-Litre Mark
The latest jump has pushed Canadian gasoline back toward one of the most psychologically uncomfortable levels for motorists. Canadian Press reporting on September 9 said GasBuddy put the national average for regular gasoline around $1.80 per litre after a daily increase of more than three cents. A later version of the report described the GasBuddy figure as just above $1.80, with the daily move approaching four cents. Either way, the direction was unmistakable: pump prices were climbing quickly again.
Other trackers illustrate why a single national figure should not be treated as a fixed number throughout the day. CAA recorded a Canadian average of 177.2 cents per litre at 4 a.m. on September 9, versus 179.9 cents the previous day. Differences in collection times, station samples and methodologies can produce varying averages. For households, however, those methodological details matter less than the broader trend. Fuel that was markedly cheaper only weeks earlier has again become a significant weekly expense.
The Usual Post-Labour Day Relief Is Being Delayed
September normally brings some help to drivers. The high-demand summer travel season winds down after Labour Day, while Canadian fuel suppliers begin transitioning toward less costly winter gasoline. Natural Resources Canada has long identified seasonal demand as an important contributor to pump-price swings, and Canada Energy Regulator material notes that refiners generally switch back toward winter gasoline blends around September 15.
That seasonal pattern is one reason falling prices would ordinarily be expected at this point in the calendar. GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan told Canadian Press that demand typically begins easing and cheaper winter fuel starts returning to the market after the summer. This year, however, the global oil shock is working in the opposite direction. The potential benefit from softer autumn demand and the fuel-blend transition is being overwhelmed by rising crude and refined-product costs. For motorists accustomed to watching gasoline become cheaper after summer vacations end, September 2026 is therefore shaping up very differently.
The Strait of Hormuz Remains the Biggest Wild Card
The most important force behind the latest fuel-price pressure is thousands of kilometres away from Canadian filling stations. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. International Energy Agency data show that roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products moved through the narrow waterway in 2025, representing about one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade.
The Middle East conflict has severely disrupted those flows. The IEA has described the resulting shock as the largest oil-supply disruption on record, with normal shipments through the strait dramatically curtailed. Reuters reported on September 9 that crude movements were still far below normal levels as renewed attacks heightened fears about shipping security. That matters even to an oil-producing country such as Canada because petroleum products trade in internationally connected markets. Canadian refineries and fuel distributors cannot completely insulate local gasoline prices from a global shortage that raises the value of crude and refined fuels everywhere.
Brent Above US$100 Changes the Pump-Price Equation
Global crude prices have returned to levels capable of creating immediate pressure throughout the fuel supply chain. Reuters reported that Brent crude settled at US$101.21 a barrel on September 9, its highest closing level since May, as Middle East hostilities intensified. The international benchmark had climbed roughly 25 per cent over the preceding month, reflecting fears that already constrained Gulf supplies could tighten further.
That rise matters because crude oil remains one of the biggest components of gasoline production costs. Natural Resources Canada identifies world crude prices as the single most important driver behind major movements in retail petroleum prices, although refining costs, transportation, inventories, taxes and retail margins also play roles. When crude rises rapidly, refiners and wholesalers eventually have to pay more for replacement supplies. Those higher costs then move toward filling stations. The pass-through is not always immediate or identical across every city, which explains why stations can move at different speeds, but sustained crude above US$100 creates powerful upward pressure.
GasBuddy Says $1.82 to $1.85 Could Be Next
GasBuddy’s near-term warning suggests Canadian motorists should not assume the latest increase is finished. De Haan said the national average could reach approximately $1.82 to $1.85 per litre within the next week or two if current market conditions persist. That forecast is not a guarantee; geopolitical developments and wholesale fuel markets can change abruptly. It does, however, indicate that the company sees additional price pressure still working through the supply chain.
A move from $1.80 to $1.85 may sound modest compared with the geopolitical forces behind it, but repeated fill-ups make small per-litre changes noticeable. Filling a 50-litre tank at $1.80 costs $90. At $1.85, the same purchase costs $92.50. For a household buying 150 litres over several weeks, that five-cent difference becomes $7.50. The impact becomes larger for commuters with long distances, families operating multiple vehicles and businesses with fleets. The bigger concern is therefore not one expensive visit to a station, but how long elevated prices persist.
Ottawa’s Fuel-Tax Extension Is Cushioning the Increase
One factor preventing an even larger immediate shock is the federal government’s extension of its temporary fuel excise-tax suspension. Ottawa originally suspended the federal excise tax beginning April 20, cutting the applicable rate by 10 cents per litre on gasoline and four cents on diesel. The measure had initially been scheduled to expire after September 7, but the government has now extended the full suspension through January 31, 2027.
The extension is significant because the regular federal gasoline excise tax would otherwise be 10 cents per litre. Ottawa estimates the extension will cost about $2.9 billion in additional revenue and bring total estimated relief from the measure to roughly $5.3 billion in 2026-27. Government figures also show gasoline prices declined by about 11 cents per litre on the first day the original suspension took effect, although market conditions can make the precise consumer pass-through vary over time. For motorists facing another oil-driven surge, maintaining the suspension removes one additional source of upward pressure at a particularly sensitive moment.
Where Canadians Live Still Makes a Huge Difference
A national average can obscure enormous differences between cities. Gas Wizard data for September 9 put Toronto-area regular gasoline around 186.9 cents per litre, while Calgary was roughly 171.9 cents. Vancouver was listed around 211.9 cents, and Montreal was approximately 208.9 cents. Toronto prices were expected to rise another cent to about 187.9 cents on September 10. Those gaps mean two Canadian drivers filling identical vehicles can face dramatically different bills on the same day.
Regional differences have several causes. CAA and Natural Resources Canada point to provincial and local taxes, transportation costs, refinery and wholesale margins, competition between stations and local supply conditions. Geography matters too: some markets have easier access to refinery output or large fuel-distribution hubs than others. At 211.9 cents per litre, a 50-litre purchase comes to almost $106, while the same volume at 171.9 cents costs roughly $86. That $20 difference demonstrates why a national headline captures only part of the affordability story.
Diesel Could Spread the Pain Far Beyond Drivers
Gasoline may attract the most attention from households, but diesel is potentially more important for the wider economy. De Haan warned that already elevated diesel prices could rise another five to 10 cents per litre. The timing is particularly difficult for agriculture because fall harvest activity requires tractors, combines, trucks and other fuel-intensive machinery to operate regardless of whether diesel happens to be cheap or expensive.
Statistics Canada reported that Canadian farms spent approximately $3.5 billion on machinery fuel in 2025. Total farm operating expenses reached $83 billion that year. Fuel costs therefore represent a meaningful expense even before considering trucking, rail transportation, construction and other diesel-dependent industries. Higher freight costs can eventually appear elsewhere in household budgets because groceries, manufactured goods and building materials must still be moved through the economy. Canadian Press reported De Haan warning that transportation companies could pass higher diesel costs onward. The result is a fuel-price shock that can reach consumers who rarely purchase diesel themselves.
Gasoline Is Already Playing an Outsized Role in Inflation
The renewed jump also lands at an awkward moment for the Bank of Canada. On September 2, the central bank said Canadian consumer price inflation had been hovering around three per cent in recent months, largely because gasoline remained expensive. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2 per cent in July, while measures of underlying inflation remained close to the Bank’s two-per-cent target.
That distinction is important. Policymakers have so far seen limited evidence that elevated energy prices are spreading broadly through the economy, but they have warned that the risk grows the longer oil prices and refinery margins remain high. The Bank held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent on September 2 and specifically cited the Middle East conflict and restricted Hormuz shipments as inflation risks. Its July forecast had assumed oil prices would decline and gasoline pressures would moderate. Brent’s renewed move above US$100 makes that assumption less comfortable, especially if higher transportation and business costs begin appearing more persistently in other consumer prices.
The Next Few Weeks Depend Heavily on Global Events
Several forces will determine whether $1.85 becomes reality or the latest surge fades. The most important is the Middle East conflict. A sustained improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the geopolitical premium embedded in crude and refined products. Continued attacks or further supply losses would push in the opposite direction. Ukrainian strikes affecting Russian refining capacity are another complication because global diesel and petroleum-product markets are already tight.
Canadian motorists also have some potentially helpful seasonal forces approaching. Refiners normally transition toward winter gasoline around mid-September, and gasoline demand tends to weaken once peak summer driving ends. Those developments can lower prices when crude markets are stable. This year, however, they are competing with an unusually severe global energy disruption. GasBuddy’s $1.82-to-$1.85 forecast therefore represents a near-term scenario rather than an inevitable destination. The clearest signals to watch are Brent crude, Gulf shipping flows, refined-product margins and whether the normal autumn decline in Canadian demand finally becomes strong enough to offset the global shock.
