Toronto motorists are getting some relief after a bruising two-day jump at the pumps, but the improvement does not erase the week’s increase. En-Pro’s latest Toronto and GTA forecast puts regular gasoline at $1.879 a litre for Sunday, October 4, down three cents from Saturday’s $1.909.
The bigger comparison is with Thursday. Regular gasoline was listed at $1.789 a litre on October 1, meaning Sunday’s lower forecast remains nine cents higher just three days later. For households that rely on a vehicle for commuting, errands or family travel, that difference can add several dollars to a routine fill-up. It also comes during an unusually volatile stretch in which Toronto fuel prices have repeatedly moved by several cents overnight.
Sunday’s Drop Only Reverses Part of the Weekend Surge
The latest En-Pro figures show just how quickly Toronto gasoline prices moved. Regular gasoline stood at 178.9 cents a litre on Thursday, October 1. It climbed six cents to 184.9 cents on Friday and another six cents to 190.9 cents on Saturday. Sunday’s forecast brings the price back down by three cents to 187.9 cents. In other words, motorists are getting back only a quarter of the 12-cent increase that accumulated over Friday and Saturday.
That leaves the Sunday forecast nine cents, or roughly five per cent, above Thursday’s level. The distinction is important because a falling price can sound more reassuring than it really is when it follows an unusually sharp increase. Someone filling up Sunday rather than Saturday may feel some relief, but someone comparing the receipt with one from Thursday will still see a meaningful increase. Both descriptions are accurate: gasoline is falling from Saturday’s level while remaining considerably more expensive than it was only a few days earlier.
Nine Cents Becomes Noticeable on a Full Tank
A nine-cent-per-litre increase can look relatively small on a roadside price board, but the total becomes clearer at the pump. At $1.879 a litre, 50 litres of regular gasoline costs $93.95. At Thursday’s $1.789 price, the same 50 litres would have cost $89.45. That is a $4.50 difference on one purchase. A 60-litre fill-up increases the gap to $5.40, while 100 litres of fuel costs $9 more at Sunday’s forecast price than at Thursday’s level.
The effect accumulates for households that drive frequently. If a family bought 200 litres at a price nine cents higher, the difference would be $18. These examples are simple arithmetic rather than assumptions about how much the average Toronto household consumes. Vehicle size, commute length and driving habits vary enormously. Still, they help explain why rapid movements of only a few cents per litre attract so much attention. A price increase does not have to reach record territory before it becomes visible in a monthly transportation budget.
Gas-Price Trackers Are Showing Slightly Different Moves
The $1.879 figure is supported by En-Pro’s forecast published through CityNews, but not every tracking service describes Sunday’s move identically. CityNews says En-Pro expects a three-cent decline from its Saturday benchmark of 190.9 cents. Canadians for Affordable Energy also lists regular gasoline at 187.9 cents for Sunday, but describes that as a four-cent decline because its prior benchmark was different. Those variations show why drivers can encounter competing headlines even when the reported destination price is the same.
Gas Wizard illustrates the issue further. Its Toronto page has displayed a Sunday regional forecast of 184.9 cents while separately reporting a current average of $1.879 at 6:21 a.m. Sunday. The service warns that regional predictions can be affected by rapid inventory turnover and highly localized competition. None of this makes forecasting useless. It means a forecast should be treated as an expected regional level rather than a guaranteed price at every station. The number displayed at a specific pump ultimately determines what a motorist pays.
Toronto Is Still Near the Upper End of Its Recent Range
Sunday’s forecast also looks elevated when placed beside Toronto’s recent monthly history. CityNews’ En-Pro data shows that September’s highest listed price was 188.9 cents a litre, only one cent above Sunday’s forecast. September’s low was 179.9 cents. August ranged from 162.9 to 182.9 cents, while July ranged from 163.9 to 183.9 cents. That means Sunday’s expected $1.879 remains above the highest listed Toronto price from either July or August.
The longer history also adds perspective. Toronto reached a monthly high of 192.9 cents in May 2026, so the current level is not the highest of the year. It is also well below the extraordinary 214.9-cent monthly peak recorded in June 2022. Still, comparisons with older records can obscure what households are experiencing now. The immediate story is that Toronto has moved back into the upper end of its 2026 range after much lower prices earlier in the year, including January levels between 122.9 and 130.9 cents a litre.
The Two-Day Jump Came During Another Global Fuel Shock
The Friday and Saturday increases did not occur in isolation. CityNews reported on October 2 that En-Pro expected Toronto and GTA gasoline prices to rise a combined 12 cents over two days, first to 184.9 cents and then to 190.9 cents. The report pointed to continued energy-market pressure related to the conflict involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transportation routes. Another Toronto fuel tracker described Saturday’s increase as reflecting a significant rise in refined-product terminal or “rack” prices.
International fuel markets have also remained unsettled. Reuters reported on October 2 that Brent crude settled at $102.25 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $91.11 while markets dealt with tight refined-product supplies and geopolitical disruptions. European governments also agreed to releases of diesel reserves, alongside a broader release of crude through International Energy Agency members. Those global developments do not translate mechanically into a fixed Toronto price change, but they help explain why wholesale gasoline and diesel markets have remained unusually sensitive to new supply information.
Crude Oil Is Only One Part of the Price at the Pump
It is tempting to look at oil prices and expect Toronto gasoline to move in exactly the same direction, but the relationship is more complicated. Natural Resources Canada identifies four major elements in the pump price: the cost of crude oil, refining costs and margins, retail costs and margins, and taxes. Transportation and marketing expenses are incorporated into the refining and retail portions. Changes at any of those stages can affect what motorists ultimately see on a station sign.
Supply conditions can also produce sharp short-term moves. Refinery maintenance, unexpected outages, inventory levels, transportation constraints and changes in demand can affect gasoline even when crude oil itself has not made an equally dramatic move. Ontario notes that wholesale gasoline prices in Toronto are strongly influenced by North American wholesale benchmarks, including New York Harbor. This helps explain why local prices can move quickly in response to developments outside Canada. A barrel of crude is the starting point for gasoline, not the finished product that arrives in a Toronto station’s underground tanks.
Taxes Matter, but They Do Not Explain Every Overnight Swing
Ontario’s provincial gasoline tax is currently nine cents per litre, following a permanent reduction that took effect July 1, 2025. Ontario also uses a 13 per cent Harmonized Sales Tax. At the federal level, the normal gasoline excise tax is 10 cents per litre, but Ottawa temporarily reduced the federal rate to zero beginning April 20, 2026 as fuel costs surged. The original legislated suspension covered fuel on which tax became payable through September 7.
The federal government has since introduced Bill C-38, the Canadian Fuel Affordability Act, to extend the zero rate through January 31, 2027, followed by a 50 per cent rate for February and March before the regular rate returns in April. The proposal has been moving through Parliament, so its legislative status should be distinguished from the government’s announced policy. More importantly for Sunday’s change, fixed per-litre taxes cannot by themselves explain a six-cent overnight increase followed by a three-cent decrease. Wholesale costs, market conditions and retail pricing remain significant parts of the equation.
The Lowest Price Across Toronto May Not Be $1.879
A regional forecast does not mean every Toronto station will display exactly the same price. Natural Resources Canada notes that gasoline prices can differ because of local competition, sales volume, station type, transportation costs and taxes. Retailers watch nearby competitors closely because drivers can compare large roadside price signs without even leaving their vehicles. A station that reduces its retail margin may quickly prompt competing outlets in the same neighbourhood to respond.
That creates situations where a driver can find noticeably different prices only a few kilometres apart. Gas Wizard similarly warns of “hyper-local volatility” caused by station competition and changing inventories. The practical consequence is that $1.879 should be viewed as an expected market benchmark rather than a promise. Some motorists may pay less and others more. There is also a point at which chasing the cheapest gasoline becomes counterproductive: saving three cents per litre on 50 litres is only $1.50, so a lengthy detour can consume much of the saving in fuel and time.
Premium and Diesel Drivers Face a Different Calculation
The regular-gasoline headline tells only part of Sunday’s fuel story. Canadians for Affordable Energy lists Toronto premium gasoline at 219.9 cents a litre and diesel at 244.9 cents. Its forecast shows premium falling four cents and diesel falling six cents for Sunday. At those prices, 50 litres of premium would cost $109.95, which is $16 more than 50 litres of regular gasoline at $1.879.
Diesel creates an even larger price gap. Fifty litres at $2.449 comes to $122.45, or $28.50 more than the same volume of regular gasoline. The comparison does not suggest that motorists can freely substitute one fuel for another—vehicles must use the fuel specified by their manufacturers. It does show why headline movements in regular gasoline do not tell the entire transportation-cost story. Diesel prices are particularly important beyond private vehicles because the fuel is extensively used in commercial transportation. When diesel becomes expensive, businesses moving goods face costs that extend well beyond a single household fill-up.
Drivers Have More Control Over Consumption Than Tomorrow’s Price
Short-term forecasts remain uncertain, but motorists can control at least part of their fuel bill by reducing consumption. Natural Resources Canada says fuel-efficient driving techniques can lower fuel use substantially. Gentle acceleration, maintaining a steadier speed, anticipating traffic and avoiding unnecessarily high speeds all help. Its testing indicates that driving at 120 km/h can use about 20 per cent more fuel than driving at 100 km/h, while repeatedly fluctuating between 75 and 85 km/h can also raise fuel consumption by about 20 per cent.
Vehicle maintenance matters as cooler weather approaches. Natural Resources Canada says tires underinflated by 56 kilopascals, or eight psi, can increase fuel consumption by as much as four per cent, and it recommends checking tire pressure monthly. Those savings will not eliminate a sudden nine-cent price increase, but they remain useful after Sunday’s forecast is forgotten. Canadians for Affordable Energy currently expects Toronto regular gasoline to remain at 187.9 cents on Monday and Tuesday. If that forecast holds, there is no immediate additional drop built into the next two days. What happens afterward will depend on a fuel market that has repeatedly shown how quickly conditions can change.
